Sudan's future: two one-party states?

Jeffrey Gettleman of the New York Times reports on what may happen if south Sudan becomes independent:

Analysts are already sketching the outlines of the two post-referendum
Sudans, where democracy will probably be the loser and uncompetitive,
predictable election results the norm. The net result, they argue,
could essentially be two one-party states with even less democratic
space than under the flawed coalition government that rules today.
 
“Autocracy is the expected outcome on both sides of the border,” said
John Prendergast, of the anti-genocide Enough project.
 
While Mr. Bashir’s territory will shrink considerably if the southern
third of the country splits off, he will face even less opposition
within it.
 
Likewise, in the south, Mr. Kiir’s party, the Sudan People’s
Liberation Movement, which has led the fight for succession for
decades and is now the junior partner in the national government, is
expected to continue to dominate. Already, it has shown itself
seemingly allergic to dissent, despite billions of dollars in aid
money and democracy-building projects that the United States has
pumped into southern Sudan. During the last several weeks, the
S.P.L.M. was accused by election observers of harassing and beating up
opposition candidates.